Iran: Consequences of a War

Paul Rogers

1 February 2006

This briefing paper, written by our Global Security Consultant, Professor Paul Rogers, provides a comprehensive analysis of the likely nature of US or Israeli military action that would be intended to disable Iran's nuclear capabilities. It outlines both the immediate consequences in terms of loss of human life, facilities and infrastructure, and also the likely Iranian responses, which would be extensive.

An attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure would signal the start of a protracted military confrontation that would probably grow to involve Iraq, Israel and Lebanon, as well as the USA and Iran. The report concludes that a military response to the current crisis in relations with Iran is a particularly dangerous option and should not be considered further.

Alternative approaches must be sought, however difficult these may be.

Contents

Executive Summary
Introduction
The US Context
The Israeli Factor
The Iranian Context
Current Circumstances in Iran
The Nature of US Military Action
Pre-empting Iranian Responses
Casualties
Iranian Responses
Wider Responses
Israeli Military Action
Conclusion

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