Sustainable Security

Security challenges such as terrorism, crime and weapons proliferation cannot be successfully contained or controlled without understanding and addressing their root causes. ORG’s Sustainable Security concept takes a comprehensive, long-term approach that encompasses climate change, resource scarcity, militarisation, poverty, inequality and marginalisation.

Publication: 29 November 2017

2002 Revisited: After the War, the War

This briefing looks back to that period in making a preliminary assessment of where we are now. Is the war with IS really over, are new forms of warfare effective, has the attitude to the “Axis of Evil” changed, especially in the case of Iran and North Korea, and is there still a need to consider other approaches to security? Read more »

Publication: 28 September 2017

Migration and the European Political Environment

Despite winning a historic fourth term as German Chancellor, Angela Merkel is in her weakest political position yet, having lost millions of votes to the far right. This is likely to further harden Germany’s once generous position on admitting refugees and bolster European resolve to securitise migration policy within African states. This may provide a false sense of security that will militate against the much more fundamental policy changes needed to respond properly to the growing problems of economic marginalisation and climate disruption that drive trans-Saharan migration. Read more »

Publication: 5 September 2017

Sino-Indian Relations after the BRICS Summit

At the BRICS summit in Xiamen this week, relations between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese president Xi Jinping appeared to be cordial with both leaders trying to put the recent stand off on the Doklam/Donglang plateau behind them. But despite the welcome de-escalation of the border dispute, Sino-Indian relations are not yet out of the woods. The pursuit of energy security by both countries has enmeshed them in a cycle of mutual distrust. Read more »

Publication: 30 August 2017

The case for integrating a Climate Security approach into the National Security Strategy

This research report comprehensively outlines the multiple risks to the stated objectives of the NSS / SDSR, including to UK citizens and infrastructure at home, and strategic interests abroad, and sets out the case for the integration of a climate security approach to UK national security and defence planning. Read more »

Publication: 28 June 2017

After Mosul: Islamic State’s Asian and African Future

After three years and over 22,000 air strikes, the Levantine ‘Caliphate’ manifestation of the Islamic State seems destined for destruction in 2017. Yet the revolt of radicalised Sunni Arabs is unlikely to abate in Iraq or Syria, with the battlefield shifting to localised guerrilla insurgency, increasing attacks within western states, and the opening of new fronts in the global margins, not least Asia and Africa. Such revolutions of frustrated expectations will be a major part of the geopolitical landscape for decades to come. Read more »

Publication: 28 April 2017

Trump, North Korea and the Risk of War

April has seen the inexperienced Trump Administration further escalate US military activities from Iraq and Syria to Afghanistan and Yemen. Attacking Syrian regime targets for the first time sent a clear signal of muscular change from the Obama era and suggested to President Trump a means to reverse his negative domestic approval ratings. However, it is the crisis over North Korea’s nuclear missile programme that has the greatest potential to escalate suddenly and disastrously into a conflict of global significance.  Read more »

Publication: 3 April 2017

Sustainable Security in the Trump Era

Despite considerable disarray continuing into its third month, the new US administration is showing more consistent, if not coherent, signs of how it will try to implement Donald Trump’s campaign proposals. In large part, these may be assessed as antithetical to a more sustainable security agenda, given that they promote military confrontation, undermine attempts to address climate change, and are, at best, incoherent in their response to economic inequality. Little of this translation to reality is likely to endear Trump to voters or his party. Greater policy turbulence, at home and abroad, should be expected ahead of mid-term elections next year. Read more »

Publication: 1 March 2017

The UK and the Terror Threat

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Publication: 16 December 2016

The Border Security Paradox

With Donald Trump preparing to be inaugurated next month, his election raises the issue of border security to a new height. Much discussion of the issue focuses on Trump’s proposal to erect a strong protective fence right across the border with Mexico. This, though, is just one example of a world-wide trend seen in South-East Europe, the Middle East, South and South East Asia and Australia and now sub-Saharan Africa. While it has considerable implications for international relations, there are also doubts that it is a plausible response to the sense of insecurity that has become so significant in otherwise secure communities. Israel, as probably the best-developed example of intense border protection, is an illustration of how far the desire for security can go. While serving as a profitable marker for new forms of security, it raises many issues around the nature of security. Read more »

Publication: 19 December 2016

Towards a Sustainable Security Index

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Publication: 31 October 2016

Jungle Justice: European Migration Policy Seen from the South

The causal link between food insecurity, climate change, conflict and migration is a contested one, not least because the driving forces of economic inequality and marginalisation are so strong both within and between states. However, with the world warming, much of the Middle East in flames and millions of Africans aware in real time of the gulf between their economic aspirations and reality, the pressures of migration to the rich North are only likely to increase. Whether or not its frantic attempts to close its gates succeed in the short term, the accompanying alienation of opinion in Turkey, the Middle East and Africa can only damage Europe’s standing in the longer term. Read more »