Climate Change, Populism and National Security

Climate disruption is the human security challenge of our age. With carbon emissions again rising and the world well off course delivering on the commitments it made in Paris three years ago, this briefing looks at this challenge as well as the rising influence of populist nationalism in key countries, including the US and BRIC states.Read more

ORG Explains #7: The UK Military in the Arctic

This primer explains what military presence, relations and obligations the UK has in the “High North” region comprising the Arctic and the adjacent Northeast Atlantic Ocean between Scotland, Iceland, Greenland and Norway.Read more

The Other Weapons of Mass Destruction

With the rapid erosion of the prohibition on use by states of chemical weapons, and the rise of radical non-state groups seemingly willing to utilise whatever weapons of mass destruction they can obtain, what can the international community do to restrain their use?Read more

Sustainable Security Index – Research Note on Arms Exports

This research note from Oxford Research Group’s forthcoming Sustainable Security Index pulls together data on arms exports.Read more

ORG Explains #6: UK-US Defence and Security Relations

This primer explains the legal and institutional basis of current defence and security relations between the United Kingdom and the United States, including cooperation on nuclear weapons, intelligence-sharing, conventional forces and weapons development and procurement.Read more

Sustainable Security: Global Ideas for a Greater Britain

With the divisive process of leaving the European Union destabilising the UK’s minority government and driving an obsession with redefining a global role for a “Great” Britain, the time is right for political parties of all persuasions to rethink the country’s contribution to global security.Read more

A Tale of Two Puzzles: Accounting for Military and Climate Change Expenditures

This research paper by Oliver Scanlan, ORG's Climate Fellow, examines the discrepancies between the UK Government’s military expenditures and its direct outlays on climate change mitigation and adaptation, both at home and abroad.Read more

ORG Explains #5: NATO Nuclear Sharing

This primer explains the role US-owned B61 tactical nuclear weapons play in Europe as part of NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements. It considers these weapons in terms of their economic, political, diplomatic and security significance, including internal NATO dynamics, US-Russia relations and international arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament regimes.Read more

The Kim/Trump Summit and Implications for Iran

Trump’s esoteric approach to diplomacy produced surprising outcomes at his June summit with Kim Jong-Un in Singapore. In response, Iranian hardliners have made a surprising move on ballistic missiles, potentially signalling that they fancy their chances in bilateral negotiations with the great American deal-maker.Read more

Sustainable Security Index – Research Note on Global Opportunities for Refugees and Migrants

This research note pulls together data on refugees, migrants and labour conditions for the 170 countries.Read more

Sustainable Security Index – Research Note on Climate Change

The Sustainable Security Index is a new project that aims to measure the net impact of each of the world’s states on global security.Read more

ORG Explains #4: The UK and UN Peacekeeping

This primer explains the United Kingdom’s human, financial and other commitments to UN Peacekeeping operations, how these compare to other states, and how they have changed over time.Read more

The Risk and Consequences of an Israel-Iran War

This briefing revisits ORG’s 2010 analysis of the risks and consequences of such a war, concluding that the risk is greater now than in 2010, with changes in Trump’s security team creating a window of opportunity for Israeli action in 2018.Read more

ORG Explains #3: UK Energy Security and Climate Change

This primer explains the UK’s current energy mix, with a focus on how import dependency might affect energy security in the context of rising geopolitical tensions and a changing climate.Read more

The Syria Attack: Motives and Consequences

This briefing looks at those issues and also the reaction of the main actors in the current complex civil war – the Assad regime, Russia and Iran as well as the Kurds, Turkey, Islamic State (IS), Israel and Saudi Arabia. It also makes an initial assessment of the consequences of the attack.Read more

Trump and Bolton: Making a Greater American Century?

The last month has seen dramatic upheavals among the key personnel within the Trump administration tasked with advising the president on foreign affairs and national security policy. Trump has sought a wider range of policy options on Iran and North Korea and he is now likely to get them from a more hawkish team, increasing the possibility of new US regime change operations. This briefing compares current events to the rise of the Neo-Conservative agenda in 1997-2002.Read more

ORG Explains #2: The UK Military in the Arabian Peninsula

This primer explains what presence, relations and obligations the UK military has in the Arabian Peninsula, including the six monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Yemen, as well as the international waters of the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden and Red Sea.Read more

The Invasion of Iraq Fifteen Years On

20 March 2018 will mark the 15th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq. Despite President Trump’s confident assertions that the Islamic State is defeated there and in Syria, if ORG’s predictions from before that invasion continue to hold true, we may be only half-way through a generational struggle. Indeed, dispersal of combatants from Iraq and Syria means that this is becoming an increasingly globalised war in which the West is ill-equipped to prevail.Read more

ORG Explains #1: The UK Military in the Asia-Pacific

This primer explains what presence, relations and obligations the UK military has in Asia-Pacific, defined here as the largely maritime region between Hawaii, New Zealand and the Asian mainland.Read more

Nuclear Posture Review: Sliding Towards Nuclear War?

North Korea and Russia may be the focus of contemporary Western fears of imminent nuclear-armed conflict but development and deployment of “useable” nuclear weapons has been a constant throughout the atomic age and by all nuclear-armed states.Read more

Capabilities Review: Squaring Naval Ambitions, Priorities & Resources

This briefing analyses the importance of amphibious warfare and global maritime power projection in UK military strategy, the likely actual costs of introducing the two new carriers, their aircraft and accompanying vessels, and the unaddressed manpower challenges that stymie naval development.Read more

Migration and the European Political Environment

Despite winning a historic fourth term as German Chancellor, Angela Merkel is in her weakest political position yet, having lost millions of votes to the far right. This is likely to further harden Germany’s once generous position on admitting refugees and bolster European resolve to securitise migration policy within African states.Read more

Global Britain: A Pacific Presence?

Several developments over the last month suggest that the UK is moving to establish its strongest military presence in the Western Pacific since its 1971 withdrawal of forces from Singapore. Drivers include the quest for post-Brexit trade and arms supply deals, the imperative to use the Royal Navy’s new aircraft carriers to promote a strong Global Britain brand, and a growing alignment with US regional objectives and alliances.Read more

Sino-Indian Relations after the BRICS Summit

Despite the welcome de-escalation of the situation, Sino-Indian relations are not yet out of the woods. The underlying strategic context makes confidence-building extremely difficult.Read more