Global climate change is happening faster than most models have predicted and the consequences are likely to be ruinous on a global scale. Yet, as the Extinction Rebellion protests demonstrated, there remains a gulf between an increasingly informed and activist public and established political, security and economic interests. Read more
This primer explains the Responsibility to Protect concept, including its origins, applications and critiques. Read more
This briefing assesses the evolution of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and its re-emergence in Africa and Asia. Read more
What has been overlooked in discussions of the Missile Defense Review so far is whether we are still asking the right questions about the role that missile defence plays in reducing nuclear dangers. Read more
Our work focuses on promoting global cooperation through attitudes, structures and institutions that sustain peace and security in the long-term. The programme brings to ORG expertise on climate and environmental policy, marginalisation and development challenges, arms industry, exports and proliferation, and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and northern Africa.
The sustainable security approach has been pioneered by ORG since the mid-2000s and prioritises the identification and resolution of underlying drivers of insecurity and conflict rather than their violent symptoms. Its emphasis is on preventative rather than reactive strategies and an exploration of alternatives to military action to manage and resolve conflicts.
ORG identifies three interconnected trends that are most likely to lead to competition over resources, global and regional instability, and loss of life of a magnitude unmatched by other potential threats:
These drivers represent something new. Never before has humanity faced a world as interconnected yet so socio-economically divided, where environmental limits are so apparent and where traditional approaches to war-fighting and the use of force are so counter-productive.
The programme aims to develop new thinking around the security challenges and responses that define our age in pursuit of more sustainable approaches to peace and security in the United Kingdom and globally.
This briefing examines the earlier declarations of victory, reviews the reasons for the false expectations of success and explores whether they throw light on the future of Islamic State. Read more
This primer explains the current situation concerning the United Kingdom’s food supply and how this is likely to change in the medium and long term as a result of climate change. Read more
Climate disruption is the human security challenge of our age. With carbon emissions again rising and the world well off course delivering on the commitments it made in Paris three years ago, this briefing looks at this challenge as well as the rising influence of populist nationalism in key countries, including the US and BRIC states. Read more
This primer explains what military presence, relations and obligations the UK has in the “High North” region comprising the Arctic and the adjacent Northeast Atlantic Ocean between Scotland, Iceland, Greenland and Norway. Read more
With the rapid erosion of the prohibition on use by states of chemical weapons, and the rise of radical non-state groups seemingly willing to utilise whatever weapons of mass destruction they can obtain, what can the international community do to restrain their use? Read more
This research note from Oxford Research Group’s forthcoming Sustainable Security Index pulls together data on arms exports. Read more
This primer explains the legal and institutional basis of current defence and security relations between the United Kingdom and the United States, including cooperation on nuclear weapons, intelligence-sharing, conventional forces and weapons development and procurement. Read more
With the divisive process of leaving the European Union destabilising the UK’s minority government and driving an obsession with redefining a global role for a “Great” Britain, the time is right for political parties of all persuasions to rethink the country’s contribution to global security. Read more
This research paper by Oliver Scanlan, ORG's Climate Fellow, examines the discrepancies between the UK Government’s military expenditures and its direct outlays on climate change mitigation and adaptation, both at home and abroad. Read more
This primer explains the role US-owned B61 tactical nuclear weapons play in Europe as part of NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements. It considers these weapons in terms of their economic, political, diplomatic and security significance, including internal NATO dynamics, US-Russia relations and international arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament regimes. Read more
Trump’s esoteric approach to diplomacy produced surprising outcomes at his June summit with Kim Jong-Un in Singapore. In response, Iranian hardliners have made a surprising move on ballistic missiles, potentially signalling that they fancy their chances in bilateral negotiations with the great American deal-maker. Read more
This research note pulls together data on refugees, migrants and labour conditions for the 170 countries. Read more
The Sustainable Security Index is a new project that aims to measure the net impact of each of the world’s states on global security. Read more
This primer explains the United Kingdom’s human, financial and other commitments to UN Peacekeeping operations, how these compare to other states, and how they have changed over time. Read more
This briefing revisits ORG’s 2010 analysis of the risks and consequences of such a war, concluding that the risk is greater now than in 2010, with changes in Trump’s security team creating a window of opportunity for Israeli action in 2018. Read more
This primer explains the UK’s current energy mix, with a focus on how import dependency might affect energy security in the context of rising geopolitical tensions and a changing climate. Read more
This briefing looks at those issues and also the reaction of the main actors in the current complex civil war – the Assad regime, Russia and Iran as well as the Kurds, Turkey, Islamic State (IS), Israel and Saudi Arabia. It also makes an initial assessment of the consequences of the attack. Read more
The last month has seen dramatic upheavals among the key personnel within the Trump administration tasked with advising the president on foreign affairs and national security policy. Trump has sought a wider range of policy options on Iran and North Korea and he is now likely to get them from a more hawkish team, increasing the possibility of new US regime change operations. This briefing compares current events to the rise of the Neo-Conservative agenda in 1997-2002. Read more
This primer explains what presence, relations and obligations the UK military has in the Arabian Peninsula, including the six monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Yemen, as well as the international waters of the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden and Red Sea. Read more
20 March 2018 will mark the 15th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq. Despite President Trump’s confident assertions that the Islamic State is defeated there and in Syria, if ORG’s predictions from before that invasion continue to hold true, we may be only half-way through a generational struggle. Indeed, dispersal of combatants from Iraq and Syria means that this is becoming an increasingly globalised war in which the West is ill-equipped to prevail. Read more