This research paper by Oliver Scanlan, ORG's Climate Fellow, examines the discrepancies between the UK Government’s military expenditures and its direct outlays on climate change mitigation and adaptation, both at home and abroad. Read more
This primer explains the role US-owned B61 tactical nuclear weapons play in Europe as part of NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements. It considers these weapons in terms of their economic, political, diplomatic and security significance, including internal NATO dynamics, US-Russia relations and international arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament regimes. Read more
Trump’s esoteric approach to diplomacy produced surprising outcomes at his June summit with Kim Jong-Un in Singapore. In response, Iranian hardliners have made a surprising move on ballistic missiles, potentially signalling that they fancy their chances in bilateral negotiations with the great American deal-maker. Read more
This research note pulls together data on refugees, migrants and labour conditions for the 170 countries. Read more
Our work focuses on promoting global cooperation through attitudes, structures and institutions that sustain peace and security in the long-term. The programme brings to ORG expertise on climate and environmental policy, marginalisation and development challenges, arms industry, exports and proliferation, and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and northern Africa.
The sustainable security approach has been pioneered by ORG since the mid-2000s and prioritises the identification and resolution of underlying drivers of insecurity and conflict rather than their violent symptoms. Its emphasis is on preventative rather than reactive strategies and an exploration of alternatives to military action to manage and resolve conflicts.
ORG identifies three interconnected trends that are most likely to lead to competition over resources, global and regional instability, and loss of life of a magnitude unmatched by other potential threats:
These drivers represent something new. Never before has humanity faced a world as interconnected yet so socio-economically divided, where environmental limits are so apparent and where traditional approaches to war-fighting and the use of force are so counter-productive.
The programme aims to develop new thinking around the security challenges and responses that define our age in pursuit of more sustainable approaches to peace and security in the United Kingdom and globally.
This research paper by Oliver Scanlan, ORG's Climate Fellow, examines the discrepancies between the UK Government’s military expenditures and its direct outlays on climate change mitigation and adaptation, both at home and abroad.Read more
This primer explains the role US-owned B61 tactical nuclear weapons play in Europe as part of NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements. It considers these weapons in terms of their economic, political, diplomatic and security significance, including internal NATO dynamics, US-Russia relations and international arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament regimes.Read more
Trump’s esoteric approach to diplomacy produced surprising outcomes at his June summit with Kim Jong-Un in Singapore. In response, Iranian hardliners have made a surprising move on ballistic missiles, potentially signalling that they fancy their chances in bilateral negotiations with the great American deal-maker.Read more
This research note pulls together data on refugees, migrants and labour conditions for the 170 countries.Read more
The Sustainable Security Index is a new project that aims to measure the net impact of each of the world’s states on global security.Read more
This primer explains the United Kingdom’s human, financial and other commitments to UN Peacekeeping operations, how these compare to other states, and how they have changed over time.Read more
This briefing revisits ORG’s 2010 analysis of the risks and consequences of such a war, concluding that the risk is greater now than in 2010, with changes in Trump’s security team creating a window of opportunity for Israeli action in 2018.Read more
This primer explains the UK’s current energy mix, with a focus on how import dependency might affect energy security in the context of rising geopolitical tensions and a changing climate.Read more
This briefing looks at those issues and also the reaction of the main actors in the current complex civil war – the Assad regime, Russia and Iran as well as the Kurds, Turkey, Islamic State (IS), Israel and Saudi Arabia. It also makes an initial assessment of the consequences of the attack.Read more
The last month has seen dramatic upheavals among the key personnel within the Trump administration tasked with advising the president on foreign affairs and national security policy. Trump has sought a wider range of policy options on Iran and North Korea and he is now likely to get them from a more hawkish team, increasing the possibility of new US regime change operations. This briefing compares current events to the rise of the Neo-Conservative agenda in 1997-2002.Read more
This primer explains what presence, relations and obligations the UK military has in the Arabian Peninsula, including the six monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Yemen, as well as the international waters of the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden and Red Sea.Read more
20 March 2018 will mark the 15th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq. Despite President Trump’s confident assertions that the Islamic State is defeated there and in Syria, if ORG’s predictions from before that invasion continue to hold true, we may be only half-way through a generational struggle. Indeed, dispersal of combatants from Iraq and Syria means that this is becoming an increasingly globalised war in which the West is ill-equipped to prevail.Read more
North Korea and Russia may be the focus of contemporary Western fears of imminent nuclear-armed conflict but development and deployment of “useable” nuclear weapons has been a constant throughout the atomic age and by all nuclear-armed states.Read more
This briefing analyses the importance of amphibious warfare and global maritime power projection in UK military strategy, the likely actual costs of introducing the two new carriers, their aircraft and accompanying vessels, and the unaddressed manpower challenges that stymie naval development.Read more
Despite winning a historic fourth term as German Chancellor, Angela Merkel is in her weakest political position yet, having lost millions of votes to the far right. This is likely to further harden Germany’s once generous position on admitting refugees and bolster European resolve to securitise migration policy within African states.Read more
Several developments over the last month suggest that the UK is moving to establish its strongest military presence in the Western Pacific since its 1971 withdrawal of forces from Singapore. Drivers include the quest for post-Brexit trade and arms supply deals, the imperative to use the Royal Navy’s new aircraft carriers to promote a strong Global Britain brand, and a growing alignment with US regional objectives and alliances.Read more
Despite the welcome de-escalation of the situation, Sino-Indian relations are not yet out of the woods. The underlying strategic context makes confidence-building extremely difficult.Read more
Although climate change is referenced repeatedly in the United Kingdom’s (UK) National Security Strategy (NSS) and Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR), there is insufficient detail addressing the full range of security implications of a changing climate for stated Government strategic objectives.Read more
As the UK commences negotiations on leaving the EU, juggles challenges to its own union, confronts a new wave of DIY terrorist attacks, and launches Europe’s largest ever warship, the need for a “strategic” National Security Strategy has never been greater.Read more
The appalling attack on concert-goers in Manchester will be the defining news event of the 2017 general election campaign. Yet polls suggest that the attack has not shifted popular opinion in the predictable direction of a “strong” incumbent government characterised by muscular counter-terrorism interventions at home and abroadRead more
While it seems unlikely that any decisive bloc of British voters will be swayed in their vote on 8 June by the competing parties’ pledges on UN peacekeeping, a survey of the various party manifestoes reveals a resurgence of commitment to such operations.Read more
From Theresa May’s hand-holding with Donald Trump to the pointed demands of US President, Vice-President and Defense Secretary that European states pay their share of NATO’s costs, via Turkish-Russian rapprochement and a seemingly endless series of scandals linking incoming US officials to Russian influencers, turbulence in trans-Atlantic relations looks set to be the defining security issue of 2017.Read more
The first part of this briefing will expand on two good reasons why it is in the interests of the UK government and people to embark upon a full assessment of its central relationship with the US under a Trump presidency.Read more
The briefing argues that Britain’s future international policy should correspond both with the interests and values of the majority and be based on principles such as democracy, human rights and social justice.Read more