The recent Conservative UK election victory and the lack of progress in the recent Madrid climate summit have cast doubt over future efforts to reduce global carbon emissions. This briefing assesses the prospects of whether a radical rethink amongst policymakers to mitigating climate breakdown will occur in time. Read more
During the past nine months, there have been major episodes of civil unrest in several countries across the globe. Focusing mainly on the recent mass protests in Iraq, Lebanon and Chile, this briefing draws on the concept of “revolts from the margins” to explain these events. Read more
President Trump has responded to the emerging challenges to the United States’ power from Iran and North Korea with baleful talk of military action. These threats have achieved little. What does this situation tell us about the limits of America’s military power? Read more
This primer explains what presence, relations and obligations the UK military has in the Eastern Mediterranean region, including Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, the Palestinian Territories, Syria and Turkey. Read more
Our work focuses on promoting global cooperation through attitudes, structures and institutions that sustain peace and security in the long-term. The programme brings to ORG expertise on climate and environmental policy, marginalisation and development challenges, arms industry, exports and proliferation, and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and northern Africa.
The sustainable security approach has been pioneered by ORG since the mid-2000s and prioritises the identification and resolution of underlying drivers of insecurity and conflict rather than their violent symptoms. Its emphasis is on preventative rather than reactive strategies and an exploration of alternatives to military action to manage and resolve conflicts.
ORG identifies three interconnected trends that are most likely to lead to competition over resources, global and regional instability, and loss of life of a magnitude unmatched by other potential threats:
These drivers represent something new. Never before has humanity faced a world as interconnected yet so socio-economically divided, where environmental limits are so apparent and where traditional approaches to war-fighting and the use of force are so counter-productive.
The programme aims to develop new thinking around the security challenges and responses that define our age in pursuit of more sustainable approaches to peace and security in the United Kingdom and globally.
The assassination of Qasem Soleimani caused tensions between the US and Iran to escalate dramatically. Relations between the two have simmered, though it is difficult to see how long for. But who are the real winners and losers from the crisis? Read more
Ahead of the upcoming UK General Election, this briefing examines the approaches taken by each of the main political parties to tackling climate change and asks whether election campaigns can really achieve long-term policy changes on key issues. Read more
As the United States seeks to end its 18-year war in Afghanistan through negotiations with the Taliban, this briefing revisits how Washington and the Western coalition have responded to the 9/11 attacks and stoked the cycle of violence that has empowered al-Qaida, Islamic State and other extreme, anti-Western groups. Read more
This briefing tracks the evolution of the ecological movement since the 1960s and of scientific and direct action to respond to the catastrophic threat of climate disruption. Read more
The posture of the British Armed Forces in and around the Persian Gulf mean that it would be very difficult for the United Kingdom, or its key ally Oman, to remain neutral in any military escalation of the conflict between Iran and the United States. Read more
This primer describes the new UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), situating it in the context of other European rapid reaction forces and the UK and NATO’s expanded military presence in the Baltic Sea region. Read more
The escalation of tensions between Iran and the United States during May has increased the potential for a new war in the Middle East. This briefing seeks to clarify what interests Washington and its key regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, see as worth risking such destruction. And what might be the alternatives? Read more
Global climate change is happening faster than most models have predicted and the consequences are likely to be ruinous on a global scale. Yet, as the Extinction Rebellion protests demonstrated, there remains a gulf between an increasingly informed and activist public and established political, security and economic interests. Read more
This primer explains the Responsibility to Protect concept, including its origins, applications and critiques. Read more
This briefing assesses the evolution of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and its re-emergence in Africa and Asia. Read more
What has been overlooked in discussions of the Missile Defense Review so far is whether we are still asking the right questions about the role that missile defence plays in reducing nuclear dangers. Read more
This briefing examines the earlier declarations of victory, reviews the reasons for the false expectations of success and explores whether they throw light on the future of Islamic State. Read more
Climate disruption is one of the greatest challenges facing the global community and given the lack of an appropriate response it is going to be essential for some states to take a much more forceful role. Read more
This primer explains the current situation concerning the United Kingdom’s food supply and how this is likely to change in the medium and long term as a result of climate change. Read more
Climate disruption is the human security challenge of our age. With carbon emissions again rising and the world well off course delivering on the commitments it made in Paris three years ago, this briefing looks at this challenge as well as the rising influence of populist nationalism in key countries, including the US and BRIC states. Read more
This primer explains what military presence, relations and obligations the UK has in the “High North” region comprising the Arctic and the adjacent Northeast Atlantic Ocean between Scotland, Iceland, Greenland and Norway. Read more
This briefing updates these earlier analyses and discusses political developments in Europe, the United States and Iran. It examines the risk that markedly rising tensions in the coming months pose a significant risk of an unintended escalation to violent conflict. Read more
This briefing explores how further peaceful progress in North East Asia may depend on furthering Trump’s delusion that he is leading and winning with Pyongyang. Read more
With the rapid erosion of the prohibition on use by states of chemical weapons, and the rise of radical non-state groups seemingly willing to utilise whatever weapons of mass destruction they can obtain, what can the international community do to restrain their use? Read more
This research note from Oxford Research Group’s forthcoming Sustainable Security Index pulls together data on arms exports. Read more