Paul Rogers' Briefings

Austerity in the Age of COVID-19: A Match Made in Hell?

The COVID-19 pandemic has been described as the biggest crisis facing the world since the end of the Second World War. The pandemic has raised serious questions about whether the political and economic systems in many states can deal with a crisis of this nature. Read more

Connecting the Dots: The West’s Wars at Home and Abroad

The "war on terror" has been underway for nearly two decades. Yet there is still little appreciation in some political quarters of how this approach has often been counterproductive and even created the conditions for violent extremism to thrive. If we are ever going to move towards a less violent future, this must change. Read more

Who Benefits? Trump, Iran and the Bigger Picture

The assassination of Qasem Soleimani caused tensions between the US and Iran to escalate dramatically. Relations between the two have simmered, though it is difficult to see how long for. But who are the real winners and losers from the crisis? Read more

Running Out of Time? Future Prospects for Climate Stability

The recent Conservative UK election victory and the lack of progress in the recent Madrid climate summit have cast doubt over future efforts to reduce global carbon emissions. This briefing assesses the prospects of whether a radical rethink amongst policymakers to mitigating climate breakdown will occur in time. Read more

A Green Election – If Not Now, When?

Ahead of the upcoming UK General Election, this briefing examines the approaches taken by each of the main political parties to tackling climate change and asks whether election campaigns can really achieve long-term policy changes on key issues. Read more

The Global Revolts from the Margins

During the past nine months, there have been major episodes of civil unrest in several countries across the globe. Focusing mainly on the recent mass protests in Iraq, Lebanon and Chile, this briefing draws on the concept of “revolts from the margins” to explain these events. Read more

The Limits of US Military Power

President Trump has responded to the emerging challenges to the United States’ power from Iran and North Korea with baleful talk of military action. These threats have achieved little. What does this situation tell us about the limits of America’s military power? Read more

Cycles of Violence: To Afghanistan and Back

As the United States seeks to end its 18-year war in Afghanistan through negotiations with the Taliban, this briefing revisits how Washington and the Western coalition have responded to the 9/11 attacks and stoked the cycle of violence that has empowered al-Qaida, Islamic State and other extreme, anti-Western groups. Read more

Silent Spring to Strident Summer: The Politics of Global Heating

This briefing tracks the evolution of the ecological movement since the 1960s and of scientific and direct action to respond to the catastrophic threat of climate disruption. Read more

Confronting Iran: The British Dimension

The posture of the British Armed Forces in and around the Persian Gulf mean that it would be very difficult for the United Kingdom, or its key ally Oman, to remain neutral in any military escalation of the conflict between Iran and the United States. Read more

Confronting Iran: To What End?

The escalation of tensions between Iran and the United States during May has increased the potential for a new war in the Middle East. This briefing seeks to clarify what interests Washington and its key regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, see as worth risking such destruction. And what might be the alternatives? Read more

Tipping to Rebellion: Action and Reaction on Climate Science

Global climate change is happening faster than most models have predicted and the consequences are likely to be ruinous on a global scale. Yet, as the Extinction Rebellion protests demonstrated, there remains a gulf between an increasingly informed and activist public and established political, security and economic interests. Read more

After Baghouz: A Jihadi Archipelago

This briefing assesses the evolution of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and its re-emergence in Africa and Asia. Read more

Caliphate Interrupted: Towards a Stateless IS

This briefing examines the earlier declarations of victory, reviews the reasons for the false expectations of success and explores whether they throw light on the future of Islamic State. Read more

Blueprints for a Green Challenge

Climate disruption is one of the greatest challenges facing the global community and given the lack of an appropriate response it is going to be essential for some states to take a much more forceful role. Read more

2018: Passing the Buck

2018 has been a quieter year than many expected from the high tensions at the end of 2017. Yet the underlying drivers of global conflict have continued to increase. Read more

Climate Change, Populism and National Security

Climate disruption is the human security challenge of our age. With carbon emissions again rising and the world well off course delivering on the commitments it made in Paris three years ago, this briefing looks at this challenge as well as the rising influence of populist nationalism in key countries, including the US and BRIC states. Read more

Iran, the US and the Risk of Accidental War

This briefing updates these earlier analyses and discusses political developments in Europe, the United States and Iran. It examines the risk that markedly rising tensions in the coming months pose a significant risk of an unintended escalation to violent conflict. Read more

North Korea and The United States – Who is in Charge?

This briefing explores how further peaceful progress in North East Asia may depend on furthering Trump’s delusion that he is leading and winning with Pyongyang. Read more

The Other Weapons of Mass Destruction

With the rapid erosion of the prohibition on use by states of chemical weapons, and the rise of radical non-state groups seemingly willing to utilise whatever weapons of mass destruction they can obtain, what can the international community do to restrain their use? Read more

Sustainable Security: Global Ideas for a Greater Britain

With the divisive process of leaving the European Union destabilising the UK’s minority government and driving an obsession with redefining a global role for a “Great” Britain, the time is right for political parties of all persuasions to rethink the country’s contribution to global security. Read more

The Kim/Trump Summit and Implications for Iran

Trump’s esoteric approach to diplomacy produced surprising outcomes at his June summit with Kim Jong-Un in Singapore. In response, Iranian hardliners have made a surprising move on ballistic missiles, potentially signalling that they fancy their chances in bilateral negotiations with the great American deal-maker. Read more

The Risk and Consequences of an Israel-Iran War

This briefing revisits ORG’s 2010 analysis of the risks and consequences of such a war, concluding that the risk is greater now than in 2010, with changes in Trump’s security team creating a window of opportunity for Israeli action in 2018. Read more

The Syria Attack: Motives and Consequences

This briefing looks at those issues and also the reaction of the main actors in the current complex civil war – the Assad regime, Russia and Iran as well as the Kurds, Turkey, Islamic State (IS), Israel and Saudi Arabia. It also makes an initial assessment of the consequences of the attack. Read more