President Trump has responded to the emerging challenges to the United States’ power from Iran and North Korea with baleful talk of military action. These threats have achieved little. What does this situation tell us about the limits of America’s military power? Read more
This primer explains what presence, relations and obligations the UK military has in the Eastern Mediterranean region, including Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, the Palestinian Territories, Syria and Turkey. Read more
As the United States seeks to end its 18-year war in Afghanistan through negotiations with the Taliban, this briefing revisits how Washington and the Western coalition have responded to the 9/11 attacks and stoked the cycle of violence that has empowered al-Qaida, Islamic State and other extreme, anti-Western groups. Read more
This policy brief presents a short profile of Marib governorate and outlines its importance as one of Yemen’s key regions. It outlines how the ongoing conflict has affected it, before presenting the governorate’s key challenges and recommendations for future conflict resolution there. Read more
This policy brief presents a short profile of Hadramawt governorate and outlines its importance as one of Yemen’s key regions. It outlines how the ongoing conflict has affected it, before presenting the governorate’s key challenges and recommendations for future conflict resolution there. Read more
Liam Walpole is joined by Marwa Baabbad, Director of ORG's Strategic Peacebuilding Programme, to discuss the UK's policy towards Yemen and the impact of its security partnership with Saudi Arabia on the country. Read more
The Remote Warfare Programme's Liam Walpole and Megan Karlshoej-Pedersen discuss the latest developments in UK defence and security policy. Read more
The posture of the British Armed Forces in and around the Persian Gulf mean that it would be very difficult for the United Kingdom, or its key ally Oman, to remain neutral in any military escalation of the conflict between Iran and the United States. Read more
The escalation of tensions between Iran and the United States during May has increased the potential for a new war in the Middle East. This briefing seeks to clarify what interests Washington and its key regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, see as worth risking such destruction. And what might be the alternatives? Read more
To discuss a recent German court case regarding drones, the Remote Warfare Programme team are joined by Fiona Nelson of ECCHR and Jennifer Gibson of Reprieve. Read more
This briefing updates these earlier analyses and discusses political developments in Europe, the United States and Iran. It examines the risk that markedly rising tensions in the coming months pose a significant risk of an unintended escalation to violent conflict. Read more
This report assesses the costs and benefits to the UK of its defence and security relationship with Saudi Arabia, as well as the extent to which the UK is able to exert leverage and influence over Saudi Arabian foreign policy. Read more
This report is a first attempt to evaluate the gaps between contemporary strategies and activities in Iraq, Syria and Libya. Read more
Between 2004-2015 Britain engaged in capacity building operations across Yemen’s police, military, and intelligence agencies. This briefing seeks to provide a critical review of these efforts, their successes, and the causes of their ultimate failure, in order to identify lessons for future training and assistance missions. Read more
To move towards a resolution, recognising that the time may not yet be ripe for a meaningful peace agreement, ORG and the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies (SCSS) are working to strengthen local capacity for more inclusive and strategic dialogue in two of Yemen’s key regions, Marib and Hadhramout. Read more
This briefing looks at those issues and also the reaction of the main actors in the current complex civil war – the Assad regime, Russia and Iran as well as the Kurds, Turkey, Islamic State (IS), Israel and Saudi Arabia. It also makes an initial assessment of the consequences of the attack. Read more
This primer explains what presence, relations and obligations the UK military has in the Arabian Peninsula, including the six monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Yemen, as well as the international waters of the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden and Red Sea. Read more
20 March 2018 will mark the 15th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq. Despite President Trump’s confident assertions that the Islamic State is defeated there and in Syria, if ORG’s predictions from before that invasion continue to hold true, we may be only half-way through a generational struggle. Indeed, dispersal of combatants from Iraq and Syria means that this is becoming an increasingly globalised war in which the West is ill-equipped to prevail. Read more
This report summarises the discussion at a roundtable on the war in Yemen and the potential for supporting peacebuilding capacity in the region. The event took place on 1 December 2017 at the Conflict Analysis Research Centre (CARC) at the University of Kent and was a joint event organised by CARC and Oxford Research Group (ORG). The roundtable took place under the Chatham House Rule, so comments are not attributed to specific individuals or the organisations they are affiliated to. Read more
On 21 December 2017 the Palestine Strategy Group (PSG) published the English translation of its most recent strategic report: Relations between Palestinians across the Green Line. Read more
This briefing therefore looks back to 2002 in making a preliminary assessment of where we are now. Is the war with IS really over, are new forms of warfare effective, has the attitude to the “Axis of Evil” changed, especially in the case of Iran and North Korea, and is there still a need to consider other approaches to security? Read more
Despite winning a historic fourth term as German Chancellor, Angela Merkel is in her weakest political position yet, having lost millions of votes to the far right. This is likely to further harden Germany’s once generous position on admitting refugees and bolster European resolve to securitise migration policy within African states. Read more
Did we really need 2.6 million words and 7 years of investigations to be told we should be making better decisions when we go to war? Oxford Research Group was clear – as is now decidedly stated in the Chilcot report – that invasion would intensify the risks of internal strife and Al-Qaeda activity in Iraq. But there was no room for critics of the war as a small sofa cabal of advisors to Tony Blair were already convinced of the its efficacy. Read more
After three years and over 22,000 air strikes, the Levantine ‘Caliphate’ manifestation of the Islamic State seems destined for destruction in 2017. Yet the revolt of radicalised Sunni Arabs is unlikely to abate in Iraq or Syria, with the battlefield shifting to localised guerrilla insurgency, increasing attacks within western states, and the opening of new fronts in the global margins, not least Asia and Africa. Read more