As the United States seeks to end its 18-year war in Afghanistan through negotiations with the Taliban, this briefing revisits how Washington and the Western coalition have responded to the 9/11 attacks and stoked the cycle of violence that has empowered al-Qaida, Islamic State and other extreme, anti-Western groups. Read more
The posture of the British Armed Forces in and around the Persian Gulf mean that it would be very difficult for the United Kingdom, or its key ally Oman, to remain neutral in any military escalation of the conflict between Iran and the United States. Read more
This briefing examines the earlier declarations of victory, reviews the reasons for the false expectations of success and explores whether they throw light on the future of Islamic State. Read more
This briefing updates these earlier analyses and discusses political developments in Europe, the United States and Iran. It examines the risk that markedly rising tensions in the coming months pose a significant risk of an unintended escalation to violent conflict. Read more
Emily Knowles and Abigail Watson have contributed an article to Agile Warrior Quarterly, the British Army’s intellectual examination of current and emerging threat and opportunities for land capability. Read more
This primer explains what presence, relations and obligations the UK military has in Asia-Pacific, defined here as the largely maritime region between Hawaii, New Zealand and the Asian mainland. Read more
This briefing explores the persistence of ‘nuclear culture’, or the idea that a nuclear war can be survived and won. Despite the prevalence of talk of strategic deterrence and mutually assured destruction, the resurgence of nuclear culture is driving an interest in ‘usable’ nuclear weapons in several countries. Read more
Several developments over the last month suggest that the UK is moving to establish its strongest military presence in the Western Pacific since its 1971 withdrawal of forces from Singapore. Drivers include the quest for post-Brexit trade and arms supply deals, the imperative to use the Royal Navy’s new aircraft carriers to promote a strong Global Britain brand, and a growing alignment with US regional objectives and alliances. Read more
Despite the welcome de-escalation of the situation, Sino-Indian relations are not yet out of the woods. The underlying strategic context makes confidence-building extremely difficult. Read more
US-led war games may look like a defensive manoeuver to us, but from North Korea‘s perspective they do not look the same. Read more
This new briefing is based on off-the-record military interviews with both international and local Afghan troops between February and March 2017. Read more
April has seen the inexperienced Trump Administration further escalate US military activities from Iraq and Syria to Afghanistan and Yemen. Read more
Russia’s recent bombing of a Syrian base used by UK and US Special Forces exposes the flaws with the UK’s blanket “no comment” approach. Read more
The war in Syria has become dramatically more complex since the summer, with Turkey and Russia becoming more directly engaged and several western states extending their bombing campaigns. Russia’s direct intervention seeks tactical gains for the Assad regime in northwest Syria in support of its strategic goal of a pro-Russian political settlement to the conflict. Such action makes further Islamic State advances more likely in Syria. Read more
Alarm has spread as the Islamist militant group Isis (Islamic State of Iraq & Syria) who now prefers to call itself the Islamic “state”, has crossed the border of Iraq and Syria, threatening the implementation of a caliphate and harsh Islamic law to any who do not practice its brand of violent ‘puritanism’. Sectarian hatred has begun to shape the regional DNA threatening to erode boundaries that have prevailed since the collapse of the Ottoman empire a century ago. Read more
The report, Terrorist relocation and the societal consequences of US drone strikes in Pakistan, reveals that the US drone programme in Pakistan has caused large numbers of terrorists to relocate from the heavily-targeted Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) to avoid being attacked. Read more
In the third round of nuclear talks, since Iranian President Hassan Rohani took office back in August 2013, and after five days of intense negotiations in Geneva, the E3+3 (comprising the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the United States, China and Russia) and Iran finally reached an agreement on the nuclear issue. Read more
With a fractious opposition internally and rival external powers engaged, the prospects are challenging for the ‘Geneva II’ conference on Syria. Threat of indictment for war crimes by the International Criminal Court could concentrate combatant minds. Read more
The Syrian conflict is increasingly characterised by the dominance of radical Islamist factions in the opposition and the influence of well-trained and equipped foreign Jihadists. Read more
With rising tensions between North Korea and the United States, this month, Paul Rogers asks: what lies behind North Korea’s sense of insecurity and what is the impact of western policy since 9/11 on decision-making by North Korea’s leadership? Read more
This briefing paper, written by our Global Security Consultant, Professor Paul Rogers, provides a comprehensive analysis of the likely nature of US or Israeli military action that would be intended to disable Iran's nuclear capabilities. It outlines both the immediate consequences in terms of loss of human life, facilities and infrastructure, and also the likely Iranian responses, which would be extensive. Read more