Cycles of Violence: To Afghanistan and Back

As the United States seeks to end its 18-year war in Afghanistan through negotiations with the Taliban, this briefing revisits how Washington and the Western coalition have responded to the 9/11 attacks and stoked the cycle of violence that has empowered al-Qaida, Islamic State and other extreme, anti-Western groups. Read more
Confronting Iran: The British Dimension

The posture of the British Armed Forces in and around the Persian Gulf mean that it would be very difficult for the United Kingdom, or its key ally Oman, to remain neutral in any military escalation of the conflict between Iran and the United States. Read more
Caliphate Interrupted: Towards a Stateless IS

This briefing examines the earlier declarations of victory, reviews the reasons for the false expectations of success and explores whether they throw light on the future of Islamic State. Read more

Asia

Cycles of Violence: To Afghanistan and Back

As the United States seeks to end its 18-year war in Afghanistan through negotiations with the Taliban, this briefing revisits how Washington and the Western coalition have responded to the 9/11 attacks and stoked the cycle of violence that has empowered al-Qaida, Islamic State and other extreme, anti-Western groups. Read more

Confronting Iran: The British Dimension

The posture of the British Armed Forces in and around the Persian Gulf mean that it would be very difficult for the United Kingdom, or its key ally Oman, to remain neutral in any military escalation of the conflict between Iran and the United States. Read more

Caliphate Interrupted: Towards a Stateless IS

This briefing examines the earlier declarations of victory, reviews the reasons for the false expectations of success and explores whether they throw light on the future of Islamic State. Read more

Iran, the US and the Risk of Accidental War

This briefing updates these earlier analyses and discusses political developments in Europe, the United States and Iran. It examines the risk that markedly rising tensions in the coming months pose a significant risk of an unintended escalation to violent conflict. Read more

Agile Warrior Quarterly

Emily Knowles and Abigail Watson have contributed an article to Agile Warrior Quarterly, the British Army’s intellectual examination of current and emerging threat and opportunities for land capability. Read more

ORG Explains #1: The UK Military in the Asia-Pacific

This primer explains what presence, relations and obligations the UK military has in Asia-Pacific, defined here as the largely maritime region between Hawaii, New Zealand and the Asian mainland. Read more

North Korea and the Issue of Nuclear Culture

This briefing explores the persistence of ‘nuclear culture’, or the idea that a nuclear war can be survived and won. Despite the prevalence of talk of strategic deterrence and mutually assured destruction, the resurgence of nuclear culture is driving an interest in ‘usable’ nuclear weapons in several countries. Read more

Global Britain: A Pacific Presence?

Several developments over the last month suggest that the UK is moving to establish its strongest military presence in the Western Pacific since its 1971 withdrawal of forces from Singapore. Drivers include the quest for post-Brexit trade and arms supply deals, the imperative to use the Royal Navy’s new aircraft carriers to promote a strong Global Britain brand, and a growing alignment with US regional objectives and alliances. Read more

Sino-Indian Relations after the BRICS Summit

Despite the welcome de-escalation of the situation, Sino-Indian relations are not yet out of the woods. The underlying strategic context makes confidence-building extremely difficult. Read more

What does North Korea want?

US-led war games may look like a defensive manoeuver to us, but from North Korea‘s perspective they do not look the same. Read more

In Afghanistan, more is not the answer

This new briefing is based on off-the-record military interviews with both international and local Afghan troops between February and March 2017. Read more

Trump, North Korea and the Risk of War

April has seen the inexperienced Trump Administration further escalate US military activities from Iraq and Syria to Afghanistan and Yemen. Read more

The UK Can’t Stay ‘Mum’ Over Russian Bombing of Special Forces Base in Syria

Russia’s recent bombing of a Syrian base used by UK and US Special Forces exposes the flaws with the UK’s blanket “no comment” approach. Read more

Russia’s Intervention in Syria: Implications for Western Engagement

The war in Syria has become dramatically more complex since the summer, with Turkey and Russia becoming more directly engaged and several western states extending their bombing campaigns. Russia’s direct intervention seeks tactical gains for the Assad regime in northwest Syria in support of its strategic goal of a pro-Russian political settlement to the conflict. Such action makes further Islamic State advances more likely in Syria. Read more

The rise of ISIS signals a deeper crisis of representation amidst the different communities of the region

Alarm has spread as the Islamist militant group Isis (Islamic State of Iraq & Syria) who now prefers to call itself the Islamic “state”, has crossed the border of Iraq and Syria, threatening the implementation of a caliphate and harsh Islamic law to any who do not practice its brand of violent ‘puritanism’. Sectarian hatred has begun to shape the regional DNA threatening to erode boundaries that have prevailed since the collapse of the Ottoman empire a century ago. Read more

Drones in Pakistan relocating terrorists, not eliminating them

The report, Terrorist relocation and the societal consequences of US drone strikes in Pakistan, reveals that the US drone programme in Pakistan has caused large numbers of terrorists to relocate from the heavily-targeted Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) to avoid being attacked. Read more

Iran’s Nuclear Deal: Just the Beginning, But a Historic One

In the third round of nuclear talks, since Iranian President Hassan Rohani took office back in August 2013, and after five days of intense negotiations in Geneva, the E3+3 (comprising the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the United States, China and Russia) and Iran finally reached an agreement on the nuclear issue. Read more

Geneva II: Prospects for a Negotiated Peace in Syria

With a fractious opposition internally and rival external powers engaged, the prospects are challenging for the ‘Geneva II’ conference on Syria. Threat of indictment for war crimes by the International Criminal Court could concentrate combatant minds. Read more

Syria, Russia and the Winter Olympics

The Syrian conflict is increasingly characterised by the dominance of radical Islamist factions in the opposition and the influence of well-trained and equipped foreign Jihadists. Read more

North Korea: Taking into Account the View from Pyongyang

With rising tensions between North Korea and the United States, this month, Paul Rogers asks: what lies behind North Korea’s sense of insecurity and what is the impact of western policy since 9/11 on decision-making by North Korea’s leadership? Read more

Iran: Consequences of a War

This briefing paper, written by our Global Security Consultant, Professor Paul Rogers, provides a comprehensive analysis of the likely nature of US or Israeli military action that would be intended to disable Iran's nuclear capabilities. It outlines both the immediate consequences in terms of loss of human life, facilities and infrastructure, and also the likely Iranian responses, which would be extensive. Read more

Latest

Security in the DRC and Yemen: Military Conflict, Disease Outbreak and Containment

This briefing examines the effect of military conflict on the response (and vice versa) to Ebola and COVID-19 in DRC and Yemen, respectively.
Mistrust, Misinformation and Community Engagement: Reflections on lessons from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Yemen

This briefing examines the mistrust, misinformation and community engagement during the Ebola and COVID-19 outbreaks in the DRC and Yemen, respectively.
Women’s Experiences of Disease Outbreaks in Conflict: Reflections on lessons from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Yemen

This briefing will explore the challenges facing women and girls in each of these contexts. It will first examine the response of the international community in the DRC, and identify key challenges to Congolese women.
Background Briefing - Military Conflict, Disease Outbreak and Containment: A Comparative Study of Yemen and DRC

This is the first briefing in a series released by the Oxford Research Group’s (ORG) Strategic Peacebuilding Programme. These briefings examine the lessons that can be drawn from the response to Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and how they can be applied in the response to COVID-19 in Yemen.

The Role of Youth in Peacebuilding: Challenges and Opportunities

Young people are frequently ‘othered’ in discussions about conflict. This is a dangerous practice as youths can play a very positive role aiding peacebuilding in societies recovering from conflict.
Making Bad Economies: The Poverty of Mexican Drug Cartels

Some stories say that local economies benefit from cartels in Mexico. But research suggests that the areas most plagued by drug-related violence have seriously suffered economically.
ORG's Vision

Oxford Research Group (ORG) is an independent organisation that has been influential for for nearly four decades in pioneering new, more strategic approaches to security and peacebuilding. Based in London since 2006, ORG continues to pursue cutting edge research and advocacy in the United Kingdom and abroad while managing innovative peacebuilding projects in several Middle Eastern countries.
Remote Warfare: Lessons Learned from Contemporary Theatres

This report is a first attempt to identify some of the factors that have helped or hindered the UK’s current approach to remote warfare.
Weavers of Peace: The Higaonon Tribe in the Philippines

The Higaonon, an indigenous tribe in Northern Mindanao in the southern Philippines, have preserved an ancient system of conflict resolution which has enabled them to be a truly peaceful community. However, there is a need to ensure that this knowledge is not lost in the future.
The Cyprus Problem: Why Solve a Comfortable Conflict?

Several diplomatic efforts have been made both domestically and internationally to enhance peaceful unity since the start of the Cyprus Problem. Despite the shortcomings of past efforts, it is still desirable not only to resolve the issue, but also to do so in a timely manner.
Why Does UN Humanitarian Intervention Remain Selective?

Over the past two decades, the United Nations Security Council has responded more strongly to some humanitarian crises than to others. This variation in Security Council action raises the important question of what factors motivate United Nations intervention.
The Politics of Coltan: An Interview with Michael Nest

In this interview, Dr. Michael Nest discusses the political, environmental, ethical and social issues surrounding the mining of columbite–tantalite (coltan).
The UK and UN Peace Operations: A Case for Greater Engagement

This report supports an enhanced role for Britain in UN peace operations and sets out a case for greater engagement.
The Expanding Role of Chinese Peacekeeping in Africa

China's increased involvement in United Nations (UN) peacekeeping in Africa reflects a broader trend of the country taking a more proactive approach to foreign policy.