Middle East
Publication: 1 November 2011
At a time of renewed media speculation about the possibility of an Israeli military strike on Iran over its nuclear programme and ahead of today’s IAEA report, Oxford Research Group (ORG) is publishing its briefing 'The Long-term Consequences of an Israeli Attack on Iran'. The briefing by ORG’s Global Security Consultant, Professor Paul Rogers, builds on his widely quoted report, 'Military Action Against Iran: Impact and Effects' from July 2010.
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Job title:
Managing Director
Managing Director of ORG since 2010. Chris previously directed the 'Communicating Europe' project for the independent think-tank, the 'European Stability Initiative', engaging policy-makers and media people from the Western Balkans. Chris was a Programme Director at the Wilton Park conference centre, from 1997-2008, where he directed their South-East Europe programme of events, covering the most sensitive political issues. Read more »
Job title:
Director, Middle East Programme
Gabrielle Rifkind is the Director of the Middle East programme at Oxford Research Group (ORG). She is a group analyst and specialist in conflict resolution. Gabrielle combines in-depth political and psychological expertise with many years’ experience in promoting serious analysis and dialogue. Her special areas of interest are Iran and the Palestine-Israel conflict. As a political entrepreneur, she has a deep understanding of human behaviour and motivation. Read more »
Publication: 26 April 2013
'In a much anticipated speech, the charismatic president, on a fleeting visit to Jerusalem, charmed and enthralled the audience and the wider Israeli public throughout the land. The echoes with Sadat are unmistakable. So if history is repeating itself – is it worse than a waste of time? Or a lot smarter than the commentators suggest?' In this article, ORG Advisor, Tony Klug, analyses President Obama's speech during his visit to Israel in March 2013.
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Job title:
Advisor
Sir Richard Dalton is Advisor to Oxford Research Group's (ORG) Middle East team. He was formerly a member of the British Diplomatic Service. Richard Dalton has served as Consul-General in Jerusalem (1993-1997), Ambassador to Libya (1999-2000), and Ambassador to Iran (2002-2006). At present, he is Associate Fellow for the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, London.
Photo Credit: Chatham House
Publication: 27 March 2013
In his March briefing, our Global Security Consultant, Paul Rogers, argues that while al-Qaida as a movement may be diminished, as an idea, it retains considerable potency. He says that the concept of “revolts from the margins” merits far more attention than it currently receives. While this does not mean that conventional counter-terror policies and tactics are irrelevant, it does suggest that they should be seen as more of a treatment of symptoms than of underlying causes. Unless those are addressed, especially the trend towards socio-economic marginalisation, it would be wise to assume that radical and violent social movements, of which al-Qaida and neo-Maoism are examples, will remain significant threats to national and international security.
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Publication: 4 March 2013
In this briefing, our Global Security Consultant, Paul Rogers, lays out that the war in Syria is currently in a particularly complex phase with conflicting reports of rebel progress. Jihadist militias are growing in strength and capability, making it probable that they will have considerable influence and even power in a post-Assad Syria. At the same time, there are indications that elements supporting the Assad regime, including the Iranian government, recognise this and are planning for the aftermath with their own militias.
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Publication: 12 February 2013
News that the Assad government is ready to send a minister abroad for talks with the leader of the opposition Syrian National Coalition raises some hope that a negotiated solution might be possible in Syria. However, negotiation between the two sides in the Syrian conflict should come only after regional power brokers' interests are recognised, argue ORG's Giandomenico Picco and Gabrielle Rifkind, in this article, which originally appeared in the Guardian on 12 February 2013.
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Publication: 7 February 2013
The recent violence in Syria has now been described by UN Special Envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, as “unprecedented horror”. Tragically, this violence has been fuelled right from the beginning, not only by domestic politics, but the regional geopolitical rivalries. But war is not the only solution, argue ORG's Gabrielle Rifkind and Giandomenico Picco. A new modus vivendi must be found, preventing that the conflict ‘balkanises' any further and national solutions become less likely. This is why it may now require the redrawing of the political architecture of the Levant. However, this time, such new architecture needs to be written not by the early colonialists, but by the inhabitants of the region.
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Publication: 29 January 2013
In an interview with the Huffington Post, our Sustainable Security Programme Director, Ben Zala, expressed concern about the focus on military training and support in Mali. "This ignores the fact that a purely military approach to trying to address political violence very rarely works. The current approach to terrorism and insurgency in North Africa and the Sahel for the British government is fundamentally about reacting to the symptoms rather than the causes." He says: "The idea still seems to be one of trying to contain instability through the use of military force - except this time it’s about training the armed forces of other countries. "Without putting more focus on addressing the factors driving these conflicts, it is unlikely that this approach will succeed.”
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Publication: 31 January 2013
The Obama/Karzai meeting in early January 2013 was accompanied by reports that the United States may decide to pull out all its combat troops from Afghanistan. In this respect, Obama’s re-election has considerable implications for the US approach to international security, argues Paul Rogers, ORG's Global Security Consultant. This is reflected in the caution over direct involvement in Syria, and indeed Mali, but its most important significance lies in the approach to Afghanistan. The consequences of any new thinking are important not just for Afghanistan but for other states that seek to promote a peaceful and viable future for the country.
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Publication: 28 January 2013
The French intervention in Mali, with the fall of Timbuktu, and the recent attack in Algeria, have dominated the news agenda. Are they the start of a new phase of the "war on terror" across North and West Africa - an existential threat that could last decades? Or is this is a dangerous simplification of a much more complex problem and risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy? These are the questions addressed by our Global Security Consultant, Paul Rogers, in a special briefing on the situation in Mali and West Africa, which ORG has been observing over the past couple of years.
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Publication: 25 January 2013
Remote warfare, which puts a premium on UAVs, special forces and private contractors, is being hailed as an ideal alternative to traditional practices. That’s not good, argues Paul Rogers, ORG's Global Security Consultant, in this article, originally written for the ISN. Whatever war-weary publics may want, this vision of hard power is no panacea for the future.
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Publication: 25 January 2013
As part of Oxford Research Group's 30th anniversary year, we would like to cordially invite you to attend Professor Paul Rogers', Café Diplo talk on 18 February. Paul Rogers is ORG's Global Security Consultant. The subject of the talk will be 'Chances for Peace in the Second Decade': A combination of deepening socio-economic divisions and accelerating environmental limits, especially the impact of climate change, makes the next thirty years hugely challenging in terms of world-wide security. Will it be possible to move to a more equitable, emancipated and low carbon world? How important is the "Second Decade" of the 21st Century as the key period for effecting change?
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Publication: 23 January 2013
There is a stark warning the western intervention strategy in Mali is flawed and that France and others are likely to be involved in the conflict for some time. Plans for a post-conflict stabilisation process need to be settled now between France and its coalition partners, write ORG's Anna Alissa Hitzemann and Ben Zala. A serious commitment to assisting the Malian government to going much further in addressing the marginalisation of the north is crucial. As the intervention gathers pace, it is worth reflecting on the lessons from similar operations over the past decade or so. This article is the second part of our briefing, originally published by Channel 4 News.
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