tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14675205902063234812008-06-27T13:55:58.866ZOxford Research Grouphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04601177033431768734noreply@blogger.comBlogger61125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1467520590206323481.post-51127545059276212072008-06-10T11:33:00.005Z2008-06-27T13:55:58.924Z

May 2008 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish In its analysis of trends in global security, Oxford Research Group (ORG) has argued that there are four main factors that are likely to determine patterns of insecurity in the coming decades. These are: The widening socio-economic divide, leading to the marginalisation of the majority of the world’s people, even in

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April 2008 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish The March briefing in this series (Britain’s Security – A New Approach?) was concerned with a preliminary analysis of the UK National Security Strategy that was published earlier in the year. This followed a briefing in February that questioned whether the United States might be facing a “Suez moment”. As Britain had

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March 2008 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish The UK National Security Strategy (NSS), published in March, has been presented as an entirely new development in Britain’s approach to international security. It is designed to build on a revised version of the earlier Strategic Defence Review, along with the development of the cross-government counter-terrorism

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Ferbuary 2008 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish In the autumn of 1956, Britain embarked on a military operation to take control of the Suez Canal Zone. Earlier in the year, the Egyptians had nationalised the canal, mainly to bring in revenues to aid the development of the country, especially the building of the Aswan High Dam, but also as a sign of nationhood

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January 2008 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish By the end of January, security problems in Afghanistan and Pakistan were leading to a potential crisis for NATO three months ahead of a major meeting of the alliance. At the same time, there were indications of a deterioration in the security situation in Iraq sufficient to suggest that this year’s planned

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December 2007 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish In four countries, from Iraq to Iran and on to Afghanistan and Pakistan, there were major developments in December 2007, all with consequences for the future of George Bush’s war on terror. All, furthermore, were relevant to the developing contest in the United States over the nominations for the 2008

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November 2007 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish Cold War Origins Oxford Research Group (ORG) was founded twenty-five years ago at the height of one of the most dangerous phases of the Cold War. Ronald Reagan had been elected two years earlier and had dubbed the Warsaw Pact the “evil empire”, yet the Soviet Union was in the midst of a prolonged leadership

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October 2007 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish There was a decrease in US military casualties in Iraq during October. A decline in civilian casualties was also claimed by the US military authorities but other agencies, including Iraqi government sources, were less positive. These other reports were more plausible given the huge increase in the use of air power

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September 2007 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish September marked the beginning of the seventh year of the “war on terror” that followed the suicide attacks of 11 September 2001. Contrary to expectations in Washington at that time, there is now every sign that the war will extend at least into a second decade and perhaps beyond. Because of this it is relevant

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August 2007 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish In late 2006 the Baker-Hamilton Report recommended a change of policy for the Bush Administration over Iraq. The two main proposals were that the United States should work towards a large-scale military withdrawal from the country and that it should do so in parallel with an engagement with regional powers to ensure

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July 2007 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish The first month of the Gordon Brown administration in Britain was marked by a number of decisions that gave mixed signals on defence and security policy. As last month’s briefing (Change in Pakistan and Britain) indicated, Mr Brown faced an immediate crisis in the form of a double attempted car bombing in Central

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June 2007 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish The last briefing put forward the argument that both the United States and the al-Qaida movement have motivations that transcend short-term issues in the war on terror and ensure that the current confrontation could last for some decades (A Thirty Year War, May 2007). From the US perspective, it is necessary to

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May 2007 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish On 1 May 2003, President Bush made his speech on the deck of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, declaring that combat operations in Iraq were nearing an end. He did not use the phrase “mission accomplished”, although the speech was delivered with that banner as a backdrop and it became known by that name. What

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April 2007 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish These monthly briefings started in May 2003, so the current briefing completes the first four years of the series. The emphasis has been on three main areas – the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan and the status and development of the al-Qaida movement, although the analyses have also sought to examine some more

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March 2007 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish Introduction By the early part of 2007, the results of the 2006 mid-sessional elections to Congress were beginning to have a substantial political effect in the United States. The Democrats in both Houses of Congress were seeking to link military expenditure to a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq and the Bush

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February 2007 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish Introduction There was an intense focus on Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan during the course of February, with the US surge in Baghdad getting under way at the same time as a substantial British withdrawal from Basra was announced. Although the US reinforcements in Baghdad had an immediate effect in curbing

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January 2007 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish In Iraq a surge in US ground forces is under way, with this accompanied by a substantial increase in the naval presence in the Gulf. In Afghanistan, coalition forces are being increased, although not to the level demanded by some senior officers. In both regions of war there is expected to be an increase in the

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December 2006 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish The Execution of Saddam Hussein December 2006 was one of the worst months for civilian casualties in Iraq, marking the end of a year in which sectarian violence had become far worse, even as the underlying insurgency against US forces and Iraq security forces had also accelerated. The very end of the year was

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November 2006 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish Afghanistan Although the early part of November saw a particular emphasis on the results of the US mid-sessional elections to Congress, and this will be the main subject of this briefing, the insurgency in Iraq continued with at least a hundred civilian being killed every day, and the violence in Afghanistan

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October 2006 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish Afghanistan and Pakistan During the course of October there was a decrease in the level of paramilitary activity against NATO and US forces in Afghanistan, but there were few indications that this was a sign of the foreign forces making substantial progress. Instead, it looked more likely that Taliban and other

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September 2006 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF in English or Spanish Lebanon During September, substantial numbers of foreign troops entered southern Lebanon to act as an enhanced UN observer and buffer force, with the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) withdrawing most of their troops by the end of the month. The introduction of Lebanese Army troops and international forces was meant

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August 2006 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF Afghanistan and IraqDuring August the security situation in both Afghanistan and Iraq deteriorated further, in spite of efforts by the United States and its partners to stabilise the situation in both countries. In Afghanistan, substantial military operations were mounted by NATO in the south of the country to try and contain an

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July 2006 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF Introduction During the course of May and June there were substantial increases in violence in both Iraq and Afghanistan. In Iraq, the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and a subsequent attempt to curb the insurgency had no discernible effect and the latter part of June saw a marked increase in civilian casualties stemming largely, but by no

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June 2006 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF IraqAt the beginning of June, an American air raid in central Iraq resulted in the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian-born paramilitary leader who had figured prominently in US accounts of the insurgency in Iraq. Zarqaqi's death was covered across much of the world, but no more intensively than in the United States. This stemmed

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May 2006 - Paul Rogers Download this briefing as a PDF In the first five months of 2006, Iraqi sources reported that the civilian death toll in the greater Baghdad area was running at over a thousand a month, double the figure for a year earlier. This alone was an indicator of the deteriorating security situation in much of central Iraq, matched by increased violence in the Basra province that

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