Waiting for Terror: How Realistic is the Biological, Chemical and Nuclear Threat?

Dr. Frank Barnaby, November 2001

Oxford Research Group has been studying the threat of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) terrorism for over a decade. We have been carrying out research into the relative risks of nuclear, chemical and biological terrorism, the causes of terrorism, and long-term means of reducing the risks and countering the threat of terrorism.

The 9/11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon caused global outrage and condemnation. As the coalition forged by the USA in the wake of the atrocities continues its 'war on terror', the fear of biological, chemical and possibly nuclear terrorism in Europe and America has steadily grown. This in-depth report from Oxford Research Group investigates these increasingly crucial issues in detail:

What is terrorism? How is terrorism defined? How many terrorist groups are there? What are their motivations and what is their history?

What are the relative risks of biological, chemical and nuclear terrorism? What are chemical and biological agents and what do they do? How easy is it for terrorist groups to acquire and use them? How does a nuclear weapon work, and how easy would it be for a terrorist group to build a primitive nuclear weapon?

How can this threat be countered? How can democracies deal with terrorism? Can technology defeat terrorists? How can key materials be kept out of terrorist hands? How can intelligence be improved?

Recognising the urgent need to raise the level of the debate as WMD knowledge and equipment continues to proliferate we produced this briefing paper.


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