North Korea: Problems, Perceptions and ProposalsDr. Frank Barnaby and Nick Ritchie, April 2004There is widespread concern that the current US strategy of aggressive preventative action to deal with threat from nuclear proliferation and ‘problem states’ such as Iran and North Korea will lead to pervasive instability and the further proliferation of nuclear weapons. The use of preventative military force was used to deal with Iraq, Washington’s premier ‘problem state’, in March 2003 despite broad opposition and a variety of robust nonmilitary proposals for dealing with Baghdad’s suspected WMD programme and humanitarian abuses. The reinvigoration of North Korea’s nuclear weapon programme has caused the most serious breakdown so far in US-North Korea relations. Both sides remain unwilling to back down from polarised positions that could draw the protagonists into a military conflict involving Japan and South Korea or lead to regional nuclear proliferation. The first part of this report outlines Washington’s current strategy for dealing with North Korea, its perception of the North Korean threat, and the three policy options it faces: negotiation, containment, or military action. The second part of the report details a range of constructive and punitive non-military approaches to facilitate progress towards a negotiated settlement of the current crisis and the constructive role that the British government could play. These include confidence building measures, track-II diplomacy, shuttle diplomacy; economic and trade incentives – particularly energy security measures –, arms control and transparency, and economic sanctions. The third part of the report provides an independent analysis of North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme, including its suspected highly-enriched uranium (HEU) programme and ballistic missile capabilities. The extent of North Korea’s suspected chemical and biological weapons programmes and conventional military forces are also outlined.
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