While Bin Laden became viewed as public enemy No. 1 in the US, al-Qaida was never the narrow hierarchical organisation with one person at the centre, which many people tend to think.

Important in the longer view, is whether the Arab spring succeeds of fails: If it succeeds, and there will be more emancipation and democracy across the Middle East, this would be terrible news for al-Qaida, which has a very different world view. But, if it fails, and there will be a return to repression, then al-Qaida or similar groups, could make a comeback. In those circumstances, Bin Laden would actually figure as some kind of martyr figure in the future.

Listen to Paul Rodgers, ORG's Global Security Consultant and Professor of Peace Studies at Bradford University, and the Observer's Jason Burke examining the reaction to Bin Laden's death on the BBC's Today Programme on 4 May 2011.

Paul Rogers also wrote the briefing Arab Spring or Autumn? and the ORG Comment: After Osama – The Arab Spring is Pivotal on the subject.

Visit Paul Roger's Monthly Global Security Briefings Archive.